The Safran Summit 2026 in Las Vegas

9 AM - 12 PM: Presentations

An Engineer, Construction Manager, Program Manager, and a Risk Manager Walk into a Room: Turning Complexity into Executive Clarity

Projects rarely suffer from a lack of data - they suffer from a lack of decision-ready clarity. This session shows how a risk manager translates thousands of technical inputs into clear, high-level insights that support faster, better decisions.

We’ll walk through a project example to show how probability curves and key drivers cut through the noise - turning analysis into decisions leaders can make with confidence. Bottom line: risk analysis isn’t about the model - it’s about enabling the decision.

by Mehada Dika, PMI-RMP, Risk Management Advisor, Arcadis

Using Safran Risk for Early-Stage Project Cost Ranging and Financial Modeling

Safran Risk is commonly used for projects at the execution stage (Final Design nearly complete, ready for construction) to determine cost and schedule reserves for budgeting or bid pricing and to provide valuable insights into the key risk drivers impacting critical path and project cost. But what about for early-stage projects still in the Conceptual or Preliminary Design phase, where the desired output of a risk analysis is a cost range or an evaluation of commercial feasibility?

This presentation demonstrates the power of the Safran Risk Cost Module for modeling early-stage projects. Listen in to learn about time-phasing a cost estimate and modeling time dependency without the need for a resource loaded schedule, modeling escalation within each iteration of the Monte Carlo simulation (rather than escalating a post-simulation probabilistic cashflow distribution, and using variables to model uncertainty in key estimating parameters, all in the context of generating an 80% confidence interval estimate range per AACE recommended practices. Additionally, this presentation will illustrate how Safran iteration cashflow data can be incorporated into an external financial model Monte Carlo simulation to correlate the time-phased capital outlay with the initiation of revenue generation at the completion of the capital project.

by Samuel Steinman, P.E., MPR Associates

How to Keep Your Projects on Track Without the Stress of Unexpected Delays

Integrated Cost & Schedule Risk Analysis (ICSRA) is one of the most effective strategies in modern project risk management. It uses probabilistic analysis to quantify both cost and schedule uncertainties, providing more realistic and reliable project forecasts.

By integrating schedule and cost risk analysis, project teams can gain a comprehensive understanding of their project’s risk exposure. This approach helps identify critical risk drivers and allows teams to focus on mitigating the most significant risks, leading to more realistic project timelines and budgets. This presentation explores the key steps involved in ICSRA, examines a real-world case study of the Gas Offshore Platform Project, and highlights how a powerful tool like Safran Risk can make all the difference in project success.

by Shervin Karimianpour, PMP, PMI-RMP, PSP, Director, Construction, Projects & Assets, FTI Consulting

Introduction to effective project & program risk management with Safran Risk Manager

In today’s increasingly complex project environments, risk management can no longer sit on the sidelines as a compliance exercise or static register. This presentation explores how the companion product to Safran Risk, Safran Risk Manager (SRM), helps organisations bring risk into the heart of project decision-making with data-driven analysis

The presentation will highlight how improved visibility and collaboration can strengthen confidence in the process of managing risks & opportunities, while supporting clearer communication with stakeholders and leadership teams. We'll also explore the distinctions between SRM and Safran Risk, and the information flow between the two solutions.

by Doug Oldfield, The Ferryfield Group

12 PM - 1 PM

Complimentary Lunch

1 PM - 4 PM: Presentations

Shutdown/Turnaround Project Modeling Techniques in Safran Risk

Some of the riskiest projects are shutdowns and turnarounds (STO). The amount of money expended on a per-day basis exceeds almost any other project and the short timeframe of these events leaves almost no room for error. Ian Nicholson has worked in the shutdown/turnaround industry for over 25 years. He will discuss what makes STO projects different from capital projects and how to conduct a risk analysis on an STO project using Safran Risk.

by Ian Nicholson, P.Eng, VP Solutions, Emerald Associates

Building on the NNSA work by Hulett, Tietze, and Bailey, we extended the approach through the Subproject Interface Schedule, a condensed schedule representation that carries each subproject's fitted distributions and interface milestones into the program-level model as the integration backbone. We will walk through how we built and validated this approach, the specific Safran Risk capabilities that made it work, and the implementation challenges we encountered along the way. Attendees will leave with a clear picture of what this technique requires, where it pays off, and how to get started.

by B. ALBERT BRIER, PMP, Director, Project Controls, Dokainish and Company

Utilizing the Risk Driver Method (an AACE Recommended Practice 57R-09) for Project Success

In this session, Dr. David Hulett introduces the Risk Driver Method, an approach recommended by AACE International, but still misunderstood or underused in practice.

Many project risks don’t add a fixed number of days to a single task. Instead, they influence multiple activities, often across project phases like engineering, construction, or commissioning. The Risk Driver Method makes it possible to map these overarching risks realistically, without forcing planners to guess or oversimplify impacts.

Applying risk drivers to multiple activities also creates positive correlation to the model so there is no need to estimate directly how activity duration pairs are correlated. Positive correlation between durations, if the activities are in the same schedule path, is a way that schedule overruns can be magnified.

If you’ve ever struggled with expressing the impact of a risk as “days added if it occurs,” when, in fact, the risk affects multiple activities, this session will change how you think about schedule uncertainty.

by Dr. David Hulett, Ph.D.FAACE, Hulett & Associates