The Safran Summit 2026 in Toronto

9 AM - 12 PM: Presentations

The Changing Risk Profile of a Project from Design to Completion

As a project progresses from design through construction to completion, its risk profile will change. This includes the cost and schedule projections generated from a Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA).

To illustrate the dynamic nature of project risk, this presentation draws on a light rail megaproject case study to highlight exactly why QRAs must be performed at major milestones.

by Eric Ho, PMI-RMP, M.ASCE, Aquanti

 Using Safran Risk for Early-Stage Project Cost Ranging and Financial Modeling

Safran Risk is commonly used for projects at the execution stage (Final Design nearly complete, ready for construction) to determine cost and schedule reserves for budgeting or bid pricing and to provide valuable insights into the key risk drivers impacting critical path and project cost. But what about for early-stage projects still in the Conceptual or Preliminary Design phase, where the desired output of a risk analysis is a cost range or an evaluation of commercial feasibility?

This presentation demonstrates the power of the Safran Risk Cost Module for modeling early-stage projects. Listen in to learn about time-phasing a cost estimate and modeling time dependency without the need for a resource loaded schedule, modeling escalation within each iteration of the Monte Carlo simulation (rather than escalating a post-simulation probabilistic cashflow distribution, and using variables to model uncertainty in key estimating parameters, all in the context of generating an 80% confidence interval estimate range per AACE recommended practices. Additionally, this presentation will illustrate how Safran iteration cashflow data can be incorporated into an external financial model Monte Carlo simulation to correlate the time-phased capital outlay with the initiation of revenue generation at the completion of the capital project.

by Samuel Steinman, P.E., MPR Associates

Comparing S-Curves: Using Histogram Analysis in Safran Risk to Evaluate Baseline vs. Probabilistic Outcomes

In construction projects, S-curves are a widely used tool for tracking planned versus actual progress across schedule and cost. However, when these curves are built solely on deterministic schedule, they may present an overly narrow view of project performance, one that does not account for the range of possible outcomes.

This presentation explores the use of Safran Risk to generate and compare S-curves from both a deterministic baseline model and a probabilistic model built using Monte Carlo simulation. The focus will be on using histogram diagrams within Safran Risk to visualize the distribution of outcomes and to examine where and why the two models diverge. The intent is to investigate whether overlaying baseline and probabilistic S-curves, supported by histogram outputs, can provide a clearer picture of schedule and cost exposure.

Topics expected to be covered include the general approach to setting up both models, verifying key quantity assumptions, and interpreting histogram and S-curve variance to assess confidence levels and contingency adequacy. This is an exploratory exercise; the scope and depth of the final presentation will depend on the outcomes of the modelling process in Safran Risk.

by Yasir Masood, PMP, PMI-RMP, Risk Advisor

Shutdown/Turnaround/Outages Project Modeling Techniques in Safran Risk

Some of the riskiest projects are shutdowns and turnarounds (STO). The amount of money expended on a per-day basis exceeds almost any other project and the short timeframe of these events leaves almost no room for error. Ian Nicholson has worked in the shutdown/turnaround industry for over 25 years. He will discuss what makes STO projects different from capital projects and how to conduct a risk analysis on an STO project using Safran Risk.

by Ian Nicholson, P.Eng, VP Solutions, Emerald Associates

12 PM - 1 PM

Complimentary Lunch

1 PM - 3 PM: Presentations

The Sum of Its Parts: Stochastic Subproject Rollup for Program Risk Analysis

Building a single integrated Monte Carlo model across large, independently owned subprojects is often impractical. This presentation introduces a novel application of Safran Risk that solves this problem by fitting probability distributions to each subproject's cost and schedule outputs, then rolling those distributions up into a program-level simulation that preserves subproject uncertainty without requiring full model detail at the program tier.

Building on the NNSA work by Hulett, Tietze, and Bailey, we extended the approach through the Subproject Interface Schedule, a condensed schedule representation that carries each subproject's fitted distributions and interface milestones into the program-level model as the integration backbone. We will walk through how we built and validated this approach, the specific Safran Risk capabilities that made it work, and the implementation challenges we encountered along the way. Attendees will leave with a clear picture of what this technique requires, where it pays off, and how to get started.

by Albert Brier, PMP, Director, Project Controls, Dokainish and Company

Find Your Way with Risk Management

In engineering and construction projects, uncertainty and complexity can easily derail progress, leading to missed deadlines, budget overruns, compromised quality and a dreadful sense of being lost. Find Your Way with Risk Management demonstrates how structured risk management serves as a reliable compass for project managers, helping them navigate uncertainties and maintain control throughout the project lifecycle. This presentation explores how to establish an effective risk management framework, identify and prioritize risks, and implement targeted response strategies to keep projects on the right path. Through practical tools, examples, and actionable guidance, project managers will learn to anticipate obstacles, make informed decisions, and steer their teams confidently toward timely and successful project completion.

by Vidya Murugan PMI-RMP, Project Controls and Management Specialist, Arcadis

What’s new in Safran Risk v25.1 & Tips and Tricks

In this presentation, we’ll take a look at the latest release of Safran Risk, version 25.1, with a particular focus on the new schedule health screen. We’ll also shine a light on some lesser-known corners of the software that can help boost your productivity and/or answer different modelling questions.

by Ian Nicholson, P.Eng, VP Solutions, Emerald Associates