Schedule Risk Analysis has developed over many years into a mature discipline with its own set of tools and techniques. However, projects still fail to meet their objectives despite the principle that schedule risk analysis should contribute to success. Adequately modeling risk and uncertainty is a task project teams face every day, often without the right processes to measure both with confidence.
Risk modeling allows organizations to analyze all assets and liabilities to forecast likely losses (or opportunities) and make adequate changes to the project schedule. Too often project teams struggle with modeling uncertainty as a risk event-raising uncertainty in their overall assessment. With this in mind, Safran Software Solutions has developed a tool to adequately model risk and uncertainty, further building confidence in assessments throughout the project lifecycle.
Integrated Risk Modeling-The Solution
The integrated risk register within Safran Risk combines all of a project's uncertainty and risk modeling into one view. Rather than modeling both independently, the risk register has the ability to capture multiple levels of uncertainty while modeling each alongside the risk event.
Let's look at an example. Suppose a project team has identified three factors contributing to an activity's estimate uncertainty based on weather, region and contractor. Traditionally we've been limited to modeling just one 3-point estimate per activity that includes all of these factors, but within Safran Risk we can break down the 3-point estimate into what specific factors encompass the estimate. Furthermore, there is no limit on the number of factors that can be modeled, and the factors can be applied to multiple activities across the schedule.
How Does Integrated Risk Modeling Impact an Assessment?
Because uncertainty (risk factors) are included in the risk register, they are also included in the schedule driver and sensitivity analysis. This provides the opportunity to uncover keen insight- the impact of uncertainty as a schedule driver - that would've been missed without an integrated risk register. This information makes it easier for a project team to produce confident analyses, translating into much better results.
The Integrated Risk Modeling component of Safran Risk is unlike any tool available on the market today. Stay tuned for our last post in the Integrated Risk Modeling series, where Wes Gillette, Product Management Leader at Safran Software Solutions, will address the issues of risk and uncertainty modeling and demonstrate the Integrated Risk Modeling solution.
